crude

We keep score in public.

Every call Crude has ever made is on this page, in the words we used. A call that fails inside its window stays a miss, even if the level is reached later. This table is generated from the ledger at build time; entries are never deleted or reworded.

88

defended calls across 18 issues. 11 decided at their own deadline, 61 still running, 16 that can never be settled. None deleted, none reworded.

There is no percentage on this page, and that is deliberate. 11 calls have been decided at their own deadline, and a rate over 11 would tell you nothing except that we wanted a number. The first percentage appears at 20.

What we took back on 1 September 2026

We audited our own ledger and found that of the 41 calls we had marked decided, 23 were graded before their deadline had arrived and 15 had no deadline at all, so no date could ever have settled them. Three had been settled properly. None carried a kill condition. The percentage we had been publishing was computed almost entirely from rows our own rules refuse to certify.

So the 23 are open again, and will be decided when they fall due by someone who did not write them. The 16 that were never gradeable are marked as such and are out of the record permanently. This was not the flattering choice: 13 of the 23 we reopened were wins. Every withdrawn grade is printed below on its own row, with the date we claimed it and the reason it no longer counts. Nothing was deleted and nothing was reworded.

Two eras, and why most records below have empty fields

Through Issue 15 a call was filed with a horizon written in prose and no kill condition. Nothing forced a date, so some horizons could never close, and the author graded his own calls whenever the evidence read well. On 26 August 2026 that was changed: from Issue 16 every call must carry an ISO deadline and the specific print that would prove it wrong, and the build refuses a call that is missing either. The deadline and kill fields are empty on 80 records because those fields did not exist when those calls were made. They are printed empty rather than backfilled, because a deadline invented after the outcome is known is a rewrite.

8 calls have been filed under the full standard and 0 have settled. 21 reopened calls carry live deadlines and will settle on their own dates. We quote no percentage until 20 calls have been decided at their own deadlines. Until then the counts above are the whole of what we know.

The three calls that have been decided

Every other record below is either still running or was never gradeable. These are the only ones that have been settled on their own deadline.

Every call, oldest deadline last

  1. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 PARTIAL

    the gap between the EIA Q4 2026 Brent forecast of 78 dollars and the screen widens before it closes, so the September Short Term Energy Outlook raises the Q4 number for a third consecutive month

    Deadline 2026-09-09·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    The gap did widen before it closed and the EIA did raise Q4 again, but September was the second consecutive raise, not the third: the July 2026 Short Term Energy Outlook had cut Q4 2026 Brent from 89 to 70 dollars.

  2. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 PARTIAL

    the 24 August American sanctions package stops short of major Chinese banks and reaches only refiners, traders, shippers and insurers, because Washington will not detonate a banking confrontation before the Xi visit

    Deadline 2026-08-31·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    The load-bearing half is right, no major Chinese bank was designated and reporting ties the restraint to the coming Xi meeting, but the package reached well beyond the four named categories.

  3. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 HIT

    the EIA raises its Q4 2026 Brent forecast again at the September Short Term Energy Outlook, because two consecutive increases mark a model capitulating rather than a one off revision

    Deadline 2026-09-09·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    The EIA raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast from 78.00 to 90.66 dollars in the Short Term Energy Outlook published 9 September 2026.

  4. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 HIT

    the Iran and Oman draft is not accepted by Washington in its current form, because the United States will not ratify a passage regime that bans American vessels, so the roughly 4 dollar discount priced this week is handed back

    Deadline 2026-09-09·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    Washington never took the Iran and Oman passage regime in its filed form, and the August Hormuz discount was not merely handed back but overshot, Brent closing the horizon at 101.21 dollars on 9 September 2026 against 83.55 on 7 August 2026.

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 14, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-09. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 14 records the resolution: talks deadlocked, the blockade held, and Brent recovered $4.97 against the $4.38 lost. Called on 10 August, resolved on 14 August.

  5. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 PARTIAL

    the gap between the EIA 70 dollar Q4 Brent forecast and the screen narrows to under 10 dollars at the August Short Term Energy Outlook, with the forecast rising rather than the screen falling

    Deadline 2026-08-11·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    Issue 14 records it as a partial: the gap landed at $10.52, missing the sub-$10 level by 52 cents, a miss on the level and a hit on the mechanism (the forecast rose $8).

  6. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 MISS

    Saudi Aramco's October official selling price cuts Europe less deeply than Asia, reversing the September round in which Arab Light to Asia fell to a six year low

    Deadline 2026-09-09·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    No October reversal to grade: Aramco held Arab Light to Asia at the September six year low of minus 2.00 dollars in its 3 September 2026 official selling prices and moved only Asian heavy grades and United States barrels.

  7. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 MISS

    Brent holds a $80 to $95 range through August 2026 while Gulf throughput stays near 6.5 million barrels a day

    Deadline 2026-09-02·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    The ceiling broke inside August on at least three sessions and again on 1 September, before the 2 September horizon end; the floor held, and the throughput condition was roughly met, so the range call still fails.

  8. No. 06 · made 2026-06-22 HIT

    the reopening is paper until eastbound supertanker traffic physically resumes through Hormuz; freight rates spike before barrels loosen the market

    Deadline 2026-06-17·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    Issue 07 resolves the reopening lag and freight calls as the physical restart arrived: 220 Hormuz crossings in a week and Ras Tanura reloaded.

  9. No. 05 · made 2026-06-15 MISS

    cheaper fuel reaches European consumers because demand broke, not because supply healed, with OECD inventories still falling to a 23 year low even as the price drops

    Deadline 2026-09-13·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    Both legs failed at the deadline: European pump and heating prices rose sharply into 7 September 2026 rather than falling, and the IEA report of 11 September 2026 has OECD stocks building by 23 mb in August, not falling to a 23 year low.

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 7, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-13. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 07 records exactly this: cheaper fuel reached European pumps because the world bought less oil, while OECD stocks headed to about 50 days of cover, the fewest since 2003.

  10. No. 04 · made 2026-06-08 PARTIAL

    Chinese demand, not Gulf supply, is what caps Brent below $100, and because the cap is removable, a recovery in Chinese buying with Hormuz still shut sends Brent above $100 and TTF higher

    Deadline 2026-09-06·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    Both outcome legs printed inside the window (Brent above $100 on 23-24 July, TTF far higher), but the mechanism failed: the $100 break came on Gulf supply shocks, and Brent sat at 96.28 on 4 September even as Chinese buying kept rising.

  11. No. 02 · made 2026-05-25 HIT

    a confirmed Hormuz reopening triggers a downward repricing of oil linked positions over the following 30 to 60 days

    Deadline 2026-07-24·Kill none recorded
    settled at its deadline

    The reopening memorandum signed 17 June sent Brent from $87 to $80 within days and to $72 by 26 June; issue 06 confirms the reopening-is-bearish call.

  12. No. 18 · made 2026-09-14 OPEN

    The European diesel squeeze is structural rather than seasonal, so it survives the unwinding of the autumn maintenance season: ICE low sulphur gasoil front month settles at a premium of more than eighty dollars a barrel to ICE Brent front month on 30 November 2026

    Deadline 2026-11-30·Kill A computed ICE low sulphur gasoil to ICE Brent premium of eighty dollars a barrel or less on the 30 November 2026 settlement
    76 days left
  13. No. 18 · made 2026-09-14 OPEN

    A chokepoint that has an owner is worth more to that owner closed on some days than open on all of them, so Houthi control of Perim Island is used to discriminate between vessels rather than to stop traffic and the Bab el-Mandeb is not closed to general commercial transit before 31 October 2026

    Deadline 2026-10-31·Kill Seven or more consecutive days at or near zero general commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb on or before 31 October 2026
    46 days left
  14. No. 17 · made 2026-09-07 OPEN

    Iraq's August export recovery was bought rather than granted, so Basrah crude is still offered at a discount of twenty dollars a barrel or more to its official selling price for October or November 2026 loading

    Deadline 2026-11-30·Kill A reported SOMO offer of Basrah Medium or Basrah Heavy for October or November 2026 loading at a discount narrower than twenty dollars a barrel to its official selling price, published on or before 30 November 2026
    76 days left
  15. No. 17 · made 2026-09-07 OPEN

    The American tanker for tanker policy does not take money out of the oil price inside its first month, so ICE Brent front month settles above ninety dollars a barrel on 2 October 2026

    Deadline 2026-10-02·Kill An ICE Brent front month official settlement at or below ninety dollars a barrel on 2 October 2026
    17 days left
  16. No. 17 · made 2026-09-07 OPEN

    The seven OPEC+ countries leave November 2026 output targets unchanged at their meeting of 4 October 2026

    Deadline 2026-10-05·Kill A statement from the OPEC secretariat on or about 4 October 2026 announcing any change to November 2026 targets for the seven participating countries
    20 days left
  17. No. 16 · made 2026-08-31 OPEN

    No Strait of Hormuz transit regime carrying both the Iranian and Omani foreign ministries and an American acceptance is published before 30 September 2026, so the discount priced into Brent this week is a forecast of a document that does not yet exist

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill Publication before 30 September 2026 of a Hormuz transit text bearing both the Iranian and Omani foreign ministries, together with a public statement of acceptance from the United States Treasury or State Department
    15 days left
  18. No. 16 · made 2026-08-31 OPEN

    The discount taken out of Brent in the week to 28 August 2026 is handed back rather than extended: Brent settles above 89.31 dollars a barrel on 30 September 2026

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill A Brent front month settlement at or below 89.31 dollars on 30 September 2026
    15 days left
  19. No. 16 · made 2026-08-31 OPEN

    Qatar's contracts are the better forecast of European gas supply than Qatar's diplomacy: QatarEnergy's force majeure on European LNG contracts is still in force on 1 November 2026

    Deadline 2026-11-01·Kill A QatarEnergy or European counterparty statement lifting the force majeure, or confirming resumed contractual deliveries, before 1 November 2026
    47 days left
  20. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    Brent holds above 90 dollars a barrel through the end of Q3 2026, because escort tonnage caps the recovery in Hormuz throughput at roughly a third of pre war flow while the 24 August sanctions remove barrels from the other side of the balance

    Deadline 2026-10-08·Kill none recorded
    23 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 16, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-08. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Breached inside its window. Brent settled at $89.31 on Friday 28 August 2026, below the 90 dollar level, six days after the call was made. A breach inside the window is permanent, so this is graded now rather than at its 8 October horizon.

  21. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    the CENTCOM escorted barrel total rises by less in the next three weeks than it did in the three weeks to 21 August 2026, because the operation is capacity constrained rather than permission constrained

    Deadline 2026-09-14·Kill none recorded
    past its deadline, not yet adjudicated
  22. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    TTF holds above 60 euros per megawatt hour through the end of September 2026, because European storage cannot close a 12 point gap to last year inside the remaining injection season while Qatari cargoes stay stranded

    Deadline 2026-10-03·Kill none recorded
    18 days left
  23. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    the European Union ends the injection season below the relaxed 80% storage target, because the target was lowered to match the trajectory rather than to change it

    Deadline 2026-11-01·Kill none recorded
    47 days left
  24. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    the diesel crack spread stays above 70 dollars a barrel through the end of Q3 2026 even if Brent falls, because the Russian petrol export ban running to January 2027 removes product supply that no crude price can replace

    Deadline 2026-10-08·Kill none recorded
    23 days left
  25. No. 15 · made 2026-08-24 OPEN

    Russia does not lift its petrol export ban before 31 January 2027, because domestic fuel restrictions now cover nearly the whole country and refinery repair is slower than the strike tempo

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  26. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    Brent holds above 85 dollars a barrel through Q3 2026, because the deficit widened in the same report that cut demand and no supply is scheduled to arrive before Q4

    Deadline 2026-10-01·Kill none recorded
    16 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 15, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-01. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 15 logs the call confirmed and exceeded, with Brent at $94.39 on 21 August.

  27. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    refined product cracks outperform crude over the next 30 to 90 days, with the diesel crack holding above 70 dollars a barrel, because 5 million barrels a day of lost refinery throughput cannot be replaced by a chokepoint reopening

    Deadline 2026-11-15·Kill none recorded
    61 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 15, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-11-15. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 15 logs the call confirmed and exceeded by $32, with the diesel crack at a record $102.20 on 17 August, its first triple digit print.

  28. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    Ukraine does not resume drone attacks on tankers at Novorossiysk while American pressure holds but continues striking Russian refineries, so Russian crude export volume recovers faster than Russian product export volume

    Deadline 2026-10-16·Kill none recorded
    31 days left

    Previously graded PARTIAL at Issue 15, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded partial on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-16. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 15 records the call partially confirmed: the permitted refinery half of the campaign is working (17% of Russian refining disrupted, petrol export ban to January 2027), with the crude-versus-product export split still developing.

  29. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    the IEA 2027 surplus forecast of 4.61 million barrels a day is revised down again before the end of 2026, because it is explicitly conditional on a Middle East de-escalation that has not begun

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  30. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    TTF holds above 55 euros per megawatt hour through the end of September 2026, because Qatari cargoes are not expected to reach European buyers before early Q4 and heatwave power burn is competing with storage injection

    Deadline 2026-10-01·Kill none recorded
    16 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 15, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-01. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 15 logs the call confirmed and exceeded, with TTF at €65.87, the highest since January 2023.

  31. No. 14 · made 2026-08-17 OPEN

    OPEC does not reverse its 2026 demand growth downgrade at the September Monthly Oil Market Report, having cut for four consecutive months, which removes the case for further OPEC+ quota increases this year

    Deadline 2026-09-16·Kill none recorded
    1 days left
  32. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 OPEN

    Brent holds above 80 dollars a barrel through Q3 2026 even if the Iran and Oman agreement is signed, because the text transfers control of the strait rather than removing the risk

    Deadline 2026-11-08·Kill none recorded
    54 days left
  33. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 OPEN

    TTF holds above 50 euros per megawatt hour through Q3 2026 with EU storage at an 18 year seasonal low, because Qatari cargoes are not expected to reach European buyers before early Q4

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 15, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 15 confirms the call, with TTF at €61.43 and then €65.87, the highest since January 2023.

  34. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 OPEN

    a genuine Hormuz reopening cuts Russian oil and gas revenue faster than Ukraine's refinery campaign does, because Russia's 2026 revenue is being carried by price rather than volume

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  35. No. 13 · made 2026-08-10 OPEN

    the dark AIS share of Hormuz crossings stays above 25% for at least a month after any signing, because insurers, charterers and flag states move slower than governments

    Deadline 2026-10-09·Kill none recorded
    24 days left
  36. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 OPEN

    Brent breaks above $95 only if Gulf throughput falls durably below 5 million barrels a day, not on escalation headlines alone

    Deadline 2026-11-01·Kill none recorded
    47 days left
  37. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 OPEN

    Brent prints the mid $70s within two weeks of a ceasefire that shipowners physically act on

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  38. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 OPEN

    the gap between the EIA's $70 fourth quarter Brent forecast and the screen closes by the forecast rising, not the screen falling to $70

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 14, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 13 partially contradicted it after one week, but issue 14 records it confirmed outright: the EIA raised its Q4 forecast $8 to $78 on 11 August while the screen moved away.

  39. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 OPEN

    Saudi Aramco cuts its official selling price for Europe relative to Asia as Yanbu barrels reroute north through Suez

    Deadline 2026-10-02·Kill none recorded
    17 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 13, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-02. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 13 explicitly contradicts the reroute-dividend call: the September round cut Arab Light to Asia to a six year low, the deeper cut going to Asia rather than Europe.

  40. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 OPEN

    OPEC+ adds no further quota increases beyond the September 188,000 barrels a day for the remainder of 2026

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  41. No. 11 · made 2026-07-27 OPEN

    Brent holds above $90 over the next 30 to 90 days even if the United States and Iran sign a ceasefire, because the Ukrainian controlled Black Sea front stays open independent of Tehran

    Deadline 2026-10-25·Kill none recorded
    40 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 12, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-25. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Directly contradicted in issue 12 (Brent $87.93) and again in issues 13 and 14; issue 15 later marks it confirmed at $94.39, but the floor failed inside its window, so it is recorded as a miss.

  42. No. 11 · made 2026-07-27 OPEN

    a ceasefire between the United States and Iran alone does not return Brent to the low $70s; only a simultaneous Black Sea de-escalation does

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  43. No. 11 · made 2026-07-27 OPEN

    the gap between Goldman's $80 fourth quarter base case and the roughly $98 screen closes upward toward the $120 upside case, not down to $80, while three chokepoints stay contested

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 12, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 12 directly contradicts the expectation that the Goldman gap closes upward: Brent lost almost $10 in the following week despite an intensifying conflict.

  44. No. 11 · made 2026-07-27 OPEN

    European gas stays bid above €60 per megawatt hour as the crude war premium compounds the storage deficit near 53.67%, and a cold start to winter risks the Equinor €90 scenario

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 12, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: TTF undercut €60 in issue 12 (€59.07) and issue 13 (€55.55) inside the window; issue 14 later confirms it back above €60, but the contradiction was logged first, so recorded as a miss under the strict window rule.

  45. No. 10 · made 2026-07-20 OPEN

    while the conflict between the United States and Iran stays hot and Hormuz is contested, the shock reaches European households through gas before oil, and TTF holds above €55 into Q4 2026

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  46. No. 10 · made 2026-07-20 OPEN

    because Qatari LNG cannot bypass Hormuz and Qatar has paused its ramp up, a sustained strait crisis keeps TTF structurally bid above its pre crisis range even if Brent's oil bypass routes hold

    Deadline 2026-10-18·Kill none recorded
    33 days left
  47. No. 10 · made 2026-07-20 OPEN

    Brent holds above $85 while the strait stays contested, with a slide back under $80 the signal that the alternative oil routes around Hormuz are working

    Deadline 2026-10-18·Kill none recorded
    33 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 13, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-18. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Confirmed at issue 11 and issue 12, but issue 13 explicitly contradicts it: Brent settled $83.55 on 7 August with the strait still contested, a failure inside the stated window despite the later recovery to $94.

  48. No. 09 · made 2026-07-13 OPEN

    while the US-Iran ceasefire stays collapsed and Hormuz traffic is disrupted, Brent holds above $76 and trends toward the $80s, invalidating Citigroup's $60 year end target

    Deadline 2026-10-11·Kill none recorded
    26 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 11, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-10-11. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Brent ran to $88 (issue 10) and topped $100 (issue 11); issue 11 explicitly confirms the call that Citi's $60 target is invalidated.

  49. No. 09 · made 2026-07-13 OPEN

    the IEA's 4.62 million barrels per day 2027 surplus forecast is suspended as a market signal because it is explicitly contingent on a de-escalation that no longer holds; the bearish glut narrative cannot reassert until a durable ceasefire returns

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  50. No. 09 · made 2026-07-13 OPEN

    European gas stays bid above €45 through the summer as Hormuz LNG risk compounds the storage deficit, and a cold start to winter on sub 50% storage spikes TTF above €55

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 10, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 10 logs the €55 call confirmed and exceeded, with TTF near €59 in July before winter; issue 13 notes the call still surviving at €55.55.

  51. No. 08 · made 2026-07-06 OPEN

    the next energy price shock for European households is gas in the fourth quarter, not oil this summer, because heatwave power burn is leaving storage under-filled into winter

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded PARTIAL at Issue 9, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded partial on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 09 logs the thesis partially inverted: the gas shock arrived, but early (TTF €59-66 in July and August) and alongside a simultaneous summer oil shock rather than instead of one.

  52. No. 08 · made 2026-07-06 OPEN

    a cold start to the heating season on about 48% storage sets up a TTF spike above €50 per megawatt hour

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  53. No. 08 · made 2026-07-06 OPEN

    the $72 oil floor holds through the summer despite full Hormuz recovery and OPEC+ hikes, with a break below $65 required to validate Citi's $60 target

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill none recorded
    15 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 9, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-30. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: The floor held and then broke upward on the ceasefire collapse; issue 09 logs the issue 07 and 08 floor call confirmed and exceeded and Citi's $60 path invalidated.

  54. No. 08 · made 2026-07-06 OPEN

    a thin-storage winter revives the political pull toward restoring cheap Russian gas in Austria and Germany even as Ukraine's strikes break Russia's refining

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  55. No. 07 · made 2026-06-29 OPEN

    the low $70s is the floor of this move, not a stop on the way to the $60s, because the IEA's 2027 supply glut is being priced onto a 2026 market still drawing inventories to a 23 year low

    Deadline 2026-09-27·Kill none recorded
    12 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 9, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-27. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: The $72 floor held for two weeks (confirmed in issue 08) and then broke upward to $76; issue 09 logs the floor call confirmed and exceeded.

  56. No. 07 · made 2026-06-29 OPEN

    the risk at $72 has flipped to the upside, with the next surprise likelier a restocking bounce toward $80 than a slide toward $65

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill none recorded
    15 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 9, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-30. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 09 confirms the risk asymmetry flip to the upside: Brent broke up to $76 and trended into the $80s; $65 never printed.

  57. No. 07 · made 2026-06-29 OPEN

    returning Gulf crude rebuilds depleted stocks before it floods the market, so the real surplus and the lower price wave arrive in 2027, not H2 2026, even as physical supply recovers fast

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  58. No. 06 · made 2026-06-22 OPEN

    Brent undershoots Goldman's $80 fourth quarter floor toward the low $70s in Q3 2026 as the roughly fifty waiting supertankers clear and Gulf barrels land in the IEA flagged glut

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill none recorded
    15 days left

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 7, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded hit on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-30. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 07 confirms and closes the call, with Brent at $72.60 on 26 June as the waiting tankers cleared.

  59. No. 05 · made 2026-06-15 OPEN

    the same low oil price weakens the economic case for European diversification away from Russian crude and gas and risks a relapse into dependence once the emergency passes, with Austria and Germany most exposed

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  60. No. 04 · made 2026-06-08 OPEN

    real relief on European crude and gas input costs is pushed into Q4 2026 at the earliest, as Gulf producers including Kuwait signal output will not recover quickly even after a reopening

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill none recorded
    15 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 7, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-09-30. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: Issue 07 explicitly contradicts the Kuwait guidance: about 2 mb/d of Gulf shut-in production returned in three weeks, Ras Tanura reloaded, and Brent hit its pre-war $72 in June, well before Q4.

  61. No. 04 · made 2026-06-08 OPEN

    OPEC+ paper output increases are phantom while the strait is shut and change nothing for physical supply

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  62. No. 04 · made 2026-06-08 OPEN

    the Iraq to China crude figure, near 60,000 barrels per day, is the cleanest early signal; a move back above roughly 200,000 is physical proof the strait is reopening, ahead of any official statement

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  63. No. 04 · made 2026-06-08 OPEN

    the gap between the Brent screen price and the delivered cost of a Gulf barrel widens while the blockade holds

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  64. No. 03 · made 2026-06-01 OPEN

    Brent faces sustained downward pressure through the second half of 2026 once Hormuz reopens and Iranian plus unconstrained UAE supply return into already contracted demand

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  65. No. 03 · made 2026-06-01 OPEN

    Europe will not reach the EU mandated 80% gas storage target before the October injection season ends, per Equinor

    Deadline 2026-10-31·Kill none recorded
    46 days left
  66. No. 02 · made 2026-05-25 OPEN

    global oil demand contracts by 420,000 barrels per day in 2026 versus 2025, the first annual decline since the Covid pandemic, per the IEA

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  67. No. 02 · made 2026-05-25 OPEN

    Brent reprices to $89 per barrel in Q4 2026 as Middle East production recovers, per the EIA

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left
  68. No. 02 · made 2026-05-25 OPEN

    the margin gap between American and European refiners widens with every week Hormuz stays closed

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  69. No. 01 · made 2026-05-18 OPEN

    the oil market stays severely undersupplied through the end of Q3 2026 even if the conflict ends in early June

    Deadline 2026-09-30·Kill none recorded
    15 days left
  70. No. 01 · made 2026-05-18 OPEN

    high prices outlast any ceasefire, meaning structurally higher European fuel costs and energy bills through at least the end of 2026

    Deadline 2026-12-31·Kill none recorded
    107 days left

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 6, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Graded miss on a date inside its own window, before 2026-12-31. Reverted to open in the 2026-09-01 audit. It will be settled at its deadline by the resolver, which did not write it. Original note: The 17 June peace deal sent Brent to $80 before a single tanker moved and to its pre-war $72 by 26 June; issue 06 closes the arc opened in issue 01, and issues 04-05 log the deficit price thesis losing decisively to demand. Prices re-spiked later only on renewed war, not the deficit.

  71. No. 01 · made 2026-05-18 OPEN

    the market stays tight well beyond 2026 because a modest Q4 surplus barely dents the accumulated deficit

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    no deadline, cannot ever be graded
  72. No. 01 · made 2026-05-18 OPEN

    the daily injection rate required to hit the EU 80% storage target by 1 November exceeds any pace of the past five years, putting the target at risk

    Deadline 2026-11-01·Kill none recorded
    47 days left
  73. No. 12 · made 2026-08-03 UNGRADEABLE

    Russia's July oil and gas revenue, published 5 August 2026, confirms the Reuters projection of roughly 60% year on year growth

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 13, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: The Finance Ministry published 934 billion rubles for July, the best month of 2026, beating its own forecast by 291.9 billion rubles; issue 13 logs the outturn as confirming the war-premium-refills-the-budget finding.

  74. No. 11 · made 2026-07-27 UNGRADEABLE

    Kazakh output stays impaired with Tengiz below its roughly 925,000 barrels a day July norm while CPC loadings at Novorossiysk are halted

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 14, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 14 confirms and exceeds the call: Kazakh production fell to about 1 million barrels a day at the end of July from more than 2 million in June.

  75. No. 10 · made 2026-07-20 UNGRADEABLE

    the same war premium that lifts European bills refills Russian crude revenue via a higher Urals near $67, partly offsetting the fiscal damage of Ukraine's refinery campaign

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 12, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 12 confirms the call with the Reuters projection of Russian July oil and gas revenue up about 60% year on year; issue 13 adds the published record outturn.

  76. No. 09 · made 2026-07-13 UNGRADEABLE

    a higher oil price near $76 partly refills Russian crude revenue and offsets the fiscal damage of Ukraine's refinery campaign, so the same war premium that raises European bills also funds Russia's war economy

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 10, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 10 confirms the counter call with Urals back near $67 and record Russian seaborne exports to Asia; issues 12 and 13 sharpen it with the record July revenue outturn.

  77. No. 07 · made 2026-06-29 UNGRADEABLE

    cheap Brent near $72, putting Urals near $60, combined with Ukrainian drone strikes on more than 20% of Russian refining, breaks Russia's budget rather than merely its exports, with the Q1 deficit already exceeding the full year plan

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 13, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: The cheap-oil premise reversed and issue 13 documents the opposite outcome inside the window: July 2026 was Russia's best oil and gas revenue month of the year at 934 billion rubles, the budget carried by price rather than broken.

  78. No. 07 · made 2026-06-29 UNGRADEABLE

    TTF stays soft near or below €45 through the summer injection season as the demand glut and the Gulf recovery cap European gas

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 8, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 08 explicitly contradicts the call and makes the contradiction its Lead Story: a heatwave lifted TTF to €45.4, and gas kept climbing to €59-66 through the summer.

  79. No. 06 · made 2026-06-22 UNGRADEABLE

    the one event that snaps Brent back up is the US-Iran deal collapsing, and the postponed Switzerland talks of 19 June are the live tail risk

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 9, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 09 confirms the call: the ceasefire collapsed on 8 July and Brent broke up through the $72 floor to $76, jumping more than 7% on the day.

  80. No. 06 · made 2026-06-22 UNGRADEABLE

    cheap oil near $80 plus more than a million barrels per day of Russian refining offline squeezes Moscow's war economy harder than four years of sanctions, but erodes Europe's resolve to leave Russian supply

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded PARTIAL at Issue 7, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: The squeeze half was confirmed by issue 07 (Urals near $60, Q1 deficit larger than the full year plan); the erosion-of-European-resolve half was never evidenced, and the cheap-oil condition reversed from issue 09.

  81. No. 06 · made 2026-06-22 UNGRADEABLE

    TTF stays soft below EUR 50 through the summer injection season as the demand glut and the reopening cap European gas, even with storage lagging last year

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 10, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: TTF cleared €50 in early July and settled near €59 on 17 July, up roughly 29% across July, and stayed in the €55-66 range for the rest of the summer.

  82. No. 05 · made 2026-06-15 UNGRADEABLE

    the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is bearish for oil, not bullish; returning Iranian and Gulf barrels into a market that has lost more than 3 million barrels per day of Chinese demand accelerate Brent toward the EIA's $79 2027 average rather than spiking it

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 6, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 06 confirms the call: the deal was signed on 17 June and Brent fell to $80 before a single tanker moved, then to $72 by issue 07.

  83. No. 05 · made 2026-06-15 UNGRADEABLE

    the $18 gap between the EIA's $105 June to July Brent model and the $87 screen closes downward, toward the screen and the EIA's $79 2027 number, not upward

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 6, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 06 resolves the model versus screen gap downward, with Brent at $80 and the IEA reframing 2026 as a glut.

  84. No. 05 · made 2026-06-15 UNGRADEABLE

    a Brent slide toward $79 drains Russian per barrel oil revenue more effectively than sanctions, compounding the volume loss from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 7, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 07 deepens the squeeze as called: Urals slid into the low $60s, Russian oil and gas revenue fell 45% and the Q1 deficit exceeded the full year plan. The drain later reversed when the war premium returned (issue 09).

  85. No. 03 · made 2026-06-01 UNGRADEABLE

    the risk at $92 is asymmetric, about 3% of downside to the EIA's $89 if the deal is signed versus an 11% snapback toward $103 if it fails

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 5, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 05 resolves the asymmetric call toward the downside: the deal failed but the $103 snapback never arrived, and Brent instead broke through $89 to $87.

  86. No. 03 · made 2026-06-01 UNGRADEABLE

    a sustained one to three month Hormuz disruption pushes TTF to €90 per megawatt hour, a 96% rise from €45.96, per Equinor

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded MISS at Issue 6, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 06 explicitly contradicts the Equinor €90 call, with TTF falling to €42 inside the window; TTF later peaked near €66, never €90.

  87. No. 03 · made 2026-06-01 UNGRADEABLE

    European diesel and heating oil costs face upward pressure independent of the Brent headline, so a 3% Brent fall does not pass through to European pumps

    Deadline none recorded·Kill none recorded
    filed with no deadline, so no date can ever settle it

    Previously graded HIT at Issue 14, withdrawn 2026-09-01. Filed with no deadline, so there was never a date on which it could be decided. Marked ungradeable in the 2026-09-01 audit rather than counted, because its grade was the writer's judgement at a moment of its own choosing. Original note: Issue 14 documents heating oil futures up 92.49% year on year against Brent's 34.43% and a record diesel crack above $98, confirming distillate costs decoupled upward from the Brent headline.

  88. No. 02 · made 2026-05-25 UNGRADEABLE

    global refinery throughput falls 4.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 to 78.7 million barrels per day, the sharpest quarterly drop since the pandemic, per the IEA

    Deadline 2026-06-30·Kill none recorded
    deadline passed, and no published figure can settle it

    Never graded. Ruled UNGRADEABLE 2026-09-12. Ruled ungradeable by the founder on 2026-09-12, after the blind resolver returned undecided twice for the same structural reason. The call is written against a quarterly global refinery throughput level, and the IEA, the source it names, publishes throughput monthly and published no realized second quarter figure. No settlement convention exists that could decide it, and authoring one after the deadline had passed would be an edit to a basis. The deadline of 30 June 2026 stands, the call was never graded, and the row stays out of every rate.