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Issue 11 Brent Broke $100 on Three Chokepoints. Only One Answers to Washington. Brent crude broke $100 on Thursday for the first time since May. It did it in the same week that Pakistan and China started pushing the United States and Iran back toward peace talks. Jul 27, 2026 Issue 10 Brent at $88 Is Not Europe's Real Hormuz Problem. Gas at €59 Is. Oil just had its most violent week since spring. Brent jumped more than 14% to $88, its highest in a month. And yet the price that should worry Europe most this winter is not oil. It is gas, up 29% in July to a four month high. Jul 20, 2026 Issue 09 Brent Is Back at $76 Because the Peace That Priced the Glut Just Collapsed Brent just posted its first weekly gain in five weeks, closing near $76 on Friday. The largest oil surplus since the pandemic is still sitting in the IEA's 2027 forecast, unchanged. Jul 13, 2026 Issue 8 Brent Sat at $72 for a Second Week. The Price That Moved Was Gas. Brent oil sat at 72 dollars for a second straight week, its fourth weekly loss, with Saudi exports back to 90 percent of pre-war levels and OPEC agreeing to pump even more in August. In the same week, European gas jumped about 12 percent to a three-week high. Jul 6, 2026 Issue 07 Brent Hit Its Pre-War Price at $72. The 23-Year Inventory Low Says That Is the Floor. Brent crude closed Friday at about $72, almost exactly the price it traded at the day before the bombs fell on Iran in February. The world's oil inventories are now the thinnest they have been since 2003. Jun 29, 2026 Issue 06 Brent at $80 Is the War Premium Leaving. The Glut Has Not Even Arrived. On June 17 the United States and Iran signed a peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent crude fell to $80, an eight percent drop on the week. As of June 20, not a single commercial tanker had sailed east through the strait. Jun 22, 2026 Issue 05 Brent at $87. The Reopening Is the Bearish Catalyst, Not the Relief Rally. Brent fell to a three month low with Hormuz still shut. The reopening everyone fears is the bearish catalyst, not the relief rally. Jun 15, 2026 Issue 04 The Strait Is Shut. Beijing Is Why Oil Still Cannot Break $100. Europe's energy bill is now hostage to Chinese demand, not Gulf supply. Jun 8, 2026 Issue 03 The Market Priced a Deal. Trump Did Not Sign It. Brent at $92 prices the best case. The best case has not happened. Jun 1, 2026 Issue 02 Oil Is Near $104. The Demand to Justify It Is Already Gone. The supply shock has a shorter shelf life. Demand was already falling before Hormuz reopens. May 25, 2026 Issue 01 The Deficit Outlasts Any Deal Depleted inventories mean high prices outlast any ceasefire. The math does not forgive. May 18, 2026

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